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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 11:35:34 GMT -5
I think the fewer they hire the fewer they can 3-strike. Fo' sho'. But it's theoretically possible (can't say for certain without seeing all of the certs) they hire and three-strike in a way that renders it impossible to have enough candidates for all potential openings. I think they'll be able to do as you say down the road as the register is depleted. I'm not so sure they'll be able to do that this early if only because there are a substantial number of us who have very wide GALs at this point. As we are reduced in numbers I think you're onto something.
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 11:46:29 GMT -5
I think the fewer they hire the fewer they can 3-strike. Fo' sho'. But it's theoretically possible (can't say for certain without seeing all of the certs) they hire and three-strike in a way that renders it impossible to have enough candidates for all potential openings. I agree. Odar won't just roll over and take whatever opm shoves their way. If they can't get people they want, they won't just hire to fill slots. They can use this first cert as a learning tool, figure out how to work the system and shift any vacancies they can't fill with a desireable this time to the second cert. Now, with that said, I still expect them to hire close to the 90 this go round. I say that for three reasons. First, they simply need the bodies and have already budgeted for 90, set up training for 90 and are expecting 45,000 to 63,000 (500 to 700 x 90) dispositions from that group (after the learning curve obviously). It would take a lot, in my opinion, for them to substantially alter that plan. Second, there is simply no reason to believe those on this cert, which consists of the top scorers on the reg, will have some inordinate number of people that tank the interview, get a bad ref or otherwise prove undesireable. They may have way less to choose from than on certs past, but they have the top folks from a new, highly competitive and difficult exam process. Finally, if our polling is accurate, none of the past competing interests will force exclusion of one status or another. Polling shows exactly 1/3 of the cert has voted. 18 of those are vets. Many have shown concern in the past that those with vet pref would preclude other, nonvets. But polling would indicate only 54 of the 168 are vets. So, they could hire all of them (which of course they won't) and there are still 36 slots in the 90 for nonvets. Others have shown concern that there is a bias in hiring that favors odar insiders. 9 voters in the poll are insiders. But unlike vets, I expect the cert doesn't actually have 3x that number of insiders due to the fact insiders are overrepped on the boards. Id bet no more than 20 or so insiders are on this first cert. So, if that bias is true, they could hire every insider (and of course they won't) and every vet and still have room for 16 nonvet outsiders. Thus, strictest compliance with every past theory on hiring still doesn't preclude anyone. The 168 is undoubtedly less than they wanted....but nothing about it indicates they won't fill the full 90, or very close thereto.
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Post by hopefalj on May 20, 2014 11:56:18 GMT -5
Fo' sho'. But it's theoretically possible (can't say for certain without seeing all of the certs) they hire and three-strike in a way that renders it impossible to have enough candidates for all potential openings. I think they'll be able to do as you say down the road as the register is depleted. I'm not so sure they'll be able to do that this early if only because there are a substantial number of us who have very wide GALs at this point. As we are reduced in numbers I think you're onto something. I just mean for this specific cert. Let's say each cert has 70 names on it. There could possibly be cities that have 68-70 candidates removed with hires or three strikes, although not likely. Of course, I'd be shocked if there are 70 names per cert, though. OPM gives enough names that they believe will satisfy the requested hiring needs, which is incongruent with what SSA wants. If SSA decimates enough certs to end up with multiple requested spots that are unable to be filled, they won't be happy about it. Or it could result in more of us being rushed out to FC this year for consideration. Either way, it gives them ammunition to receive more candidates per cert in the future to avoid this situation in the future. But this is just something to watch for with this cert. I'm not guaranteeing it by any means.
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 13:59:51 GMT -5
Just read some interesting info on fiscal 2015 budget requests re alj hiring.
Nothing new on ssa, that topic has been well discussed on here.
But I did see where omha has requested funds for up to 24 new alj "teams." As usual, they probably won't get all they ask for and whatever # they get next year would undoubtedly involve some combination of hiring existing aljs from other agencies and register hiring. Will be interesting to watch though, as by the time they are ready to pull a fiscal 15 cert, odar will likely have already hired the majority of its anticipated 240. So, the idea that only the tip top scorers will have a shot at omha may be in jeopardy.
Also, the pres has included in his budget request funding for up to 10 new aljs for the DOL. Apparently they are down six from their previous high point. Doubtful, based on past practices, that any of these would be filled with newbies, but hope springs eternal. In any event, DOL hiring could open a few slots at other agencies.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 18:44:51 GMT -5
For what it is worth, I will post a bit more from what was relayed to me last week. I re-read the e-mail I received. The following didn't mean much to me as I was focused on the 240 total hires and the info that ODAR has requested more names. Again, I consider the info reliable, but of course no new names (in significant number) have been added to the cert so many may, rightfully so, deem my info suspect. Anyway, it was reported that after the at most 90 are hired this year, the plan is to hire "about 20 more each month" and eventual get to the additional 150. I assume that meant 20 per month beginning early next fiscal year, but that is my own assumption. Regardless, people on this board are much more learned on what this could mean than I am. Just thougth I would pass that along to everyone.
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Post by JudgeRatty on May 20, 2014 19:06:51 GMT -5
For what it is worth, I will post a bit more from what was relayed to me last week. I re-read the e-mail I received. The following didn't mean much to me as I was focused on the 240 total hires and the info that ODAR has requested more names. Again, I consider the info reliable, but of course no new names (in significant number) have been added to the cert so many may, rightfully so, deem my info suspect. Anyway, it was reported that after the at most 90 are hired this year, the plan is to hire "about 20 more each month" and eventual get to the additional 150. I assume that meant 20 per month beginning early next fiscal year, but that is my own assumption. Regardless, people on this board are much more learned on what this could mean than I am. Just thougth I would pass that along to everyone. Seems the days of trying to reach specific insiders is over with a pace of 20 at a time. The days of lining up 300 at a time and being able to maneuver to target known entities will be difficult with so few. This suggests super limited certs and narrow inch by inch hiring down the register. Good news for some and not so hopeful if you are on the lower end of the scores. And GAL will of course be a huge factor as always. That is of course if the 20 at a time is solid. No disrespect intended. Very different scenario than in the past!
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 19:10:37 GMT -5
20 per month? That would be incredibly inefficient. Can't see how that would work. Maybe, but I will have to see it in action.
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Post by JudgeRatty on May 20, 2014 19:21:10 GMT -5
20 per month? That would be incredibly inefficient. Can't see how that would work. Maybe, but I will have to see it in action. Certainly nothing we have seen before. Who knows. Everyone in this new process needs to learn how to communicate through guinea pig squeals cause that is what we are! Lol! Geez! May need to change my avatar.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 19:21:29 GMT -5
That was from a very high up person to a hocalj, who is a friend of mine. As for training etc.I assume they wait a couple months for a full class (later report dates?) then do training. And could they request a cert one month, request a different cert the next.. Like I said, I really don't know what to make of it.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 19:24:57 GMT -5
20 a month would mean 7 to 8 months in a row of constant reference checks, interviews and training classes. I can't see how SSA would do this efficiently at all. SSA would be in constant hire mode. I, like funky, do not see the rationale in this, but I would have to see it in action.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 19:27:14 GMT -5
If they were going 20 per month it would involve a lot of overlap of sets of certs, since they would still need to get forms back, check references, interview candidates, 3-strike and hire, etc. If I could see how doing it this way increased ODAR's control over the process, I would see it as being more likely. That is not to say it might not be true--up until the current set of certs, few if any of us saw a set of certs with as few as 168 eligibles coming.
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Post by moopigsdad on May 20, 2014 19:33:11 GMT -5
Gary you bring up another point, what about locations for certs? Under the ALJ union contract existing ALJs have to be offered transfers prior to any hiring. So, how do you determine locations monthly, if transfers are occurring constantly? It would be too difficult, perhaps 20 hires every quarter might work, but probably not monthly, but stranger things have already occurred this register and testing.
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 19:33:46 GMT -5
That was from a very high up person to a hocalj, who is a friend of mine. As for training etc.I assume they wait a couple months for a full class (later report dates?) then do training. And could they request a cert one month, request a different cert the next.. Like I said, I really don't know what to make of it. Its theoretically possible, but really inefficient. Let's say they hire the 90 this fiscal. Then, for the next 150 (to get to the 240) before end of fiscal 15, they do 20 per month. That would mean for the next 7 to 8 months they are in hiring mode. Requesting certs, notifying certed candidates, requesting background and reference checks, soliciting interviewers, conducting interviews, selection cadre meetings, offers....all the people that do this have other jobs. I just can't see them devoting 7 to 8 months of full time hiring activity. Maybe..... I expect they will do just what DC Sklar said in the conference call. 90 this year, another 90 hire next. Then the next 60 they need to get to 240 by end of fiscal 15 would either be done in one or two hires. Like sratty said, any changes are possible, but 20 per month just seems to extreme.
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Post by JudgeRatty on May 20, 2014 19:41:53 GMT -5
I do not mean to shoot the messenger and I appreciate the info Justice. But your source is close to a HOCALJ? What does that mean? Heck I am Acting HOD and I am close to a HOCALJ (office next door) and I don't know anything more than what Sklar passes down. LOL! Well Sklar said 90 this year 120 or so next from what I personally heard. Now that could break down to a replacement average of about 20 a month over the next year (fudging a little) but that does not equate to a typical hiring class. I think there may be a disconnect here. Again not shooting the messenger. But it's like the telephone game.... 20 a month average replacement vs hiring class Frankly I am going with what Sklar said until I hear it differently in a manager meeting. More cost effective to train 45 to 60 at a time.
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Post by gary on May 20, 2014 19:43:51 GMT -5
That was from a very high up person to a hocalj, who is a friend of mine. As for training etc.I assume they wait a couple months for a full class (later report dates?) then do training. And could they request a cert one month, request a different cert the next.. Like I said, I really don't know what to make of it. Its theoretically possible, but really inefficient. Let's say they hire the 90 this fiscal. The, for the next 150 (to get to the 240) before end of fiscal 15, they do 20 per month. That would mean for the next 7 to 8 months they are in hiring mode. Requesting certs, notifying certed candidates, requesting background and reference checks, soliciting intervierers, conducting interviews, selection cadre meetings, offers....all the people that do this have other jobs. I just can't see them devoting 7 to 8 months of full time hiring activity. Maybe..... I expect they will do just what DC Sklar said in the conference call. 90 this year, another 90 hire next. Then the next 60 they need to get to 240 by end of fiscal 15 would either be done in one or two hires. Like sratty said, any changes are possible, but 20 per month just seems to extreme. I agree. A couple of more things occur to me. First, as long as ODAR hasn't hired from a month's cert, all of the eligibles on that cert will potentially be on the next month's cert, and the following month's, etc., depending on GALs. I don't see the advantage of this for ODAR. Second, I think hiring for a large number of slots at a time rather than for a smaller number of slots allows ODAR more room to maneuver through a set of certs, what with deciding which slots to hire for first, and three-striking.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2014 19:46:48 GMT -5
The question is, what benefit is a 20 person per month hire? I can't think of any. However, the report was a 20 person hire per month. They could request a cert for 150. Interview a ton. Hire about 20 per month. Do training once they have the minimum for a class No idea what benefit this gets them, but this was mentioned in the context of ODAR not happy with the size of the cert and wanting more to choose from. I won't comment on it anymore, I just wanted to share what I considered reliable info I recieved b/c many on the board have shared when they have info. And in all but one glaring case, I enjoyed having the info and hearing the gueses (educated and otherwise) on what it all means.
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Post by funkyodar on May 20, 2014 19:51:45 GMT -5
I definitely don't believe in Sithing the messenger. Just feel there must be a disconnect somewhere in the intel transfer.
Thanks for sharing though. I have been wrong so much in the past i'm considering going pro at it. Maybe I could get on foxnews.
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Post by JudgeRatty on May 20, 2014 19:55:42 GMT -5
I definitely don't believe in Sithing the messenger. Just feel there must be a disconnect somewhere in the intel transfer. Thanks for sharing though. I have been wrong so much in the past i'm considering going pro at it. Maybe I could get on foxnews. Funky's Intel on Television or FIT. sorry pun intended.
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Post by alj on May 20, 2014 20:04:04 GMT -5
Having been involved in new ALJ training in the past, I can assure you there will not be training classes for 20 new judges a month. There has been mis-communication somewhere along the line.
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Post by hopefalj on May 20, 2014 20:05:18 GMT -5
I definitely don't believe in Sithing the messenger. Just feel there must be a disconnect somewhere in the intel transfer. Thanks for sharing though. I have been wrong so much in the past i'm considering going pro at it. Maybe I could get on foxnews. Inadvertent Star Wars reference?
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