FOR "FUN"- A DATE/HR POOL FOR 1st SSA ALJ OFFER

[Propmaster]

Feb 11, 2008 9:01:09 GMT -5 lurker said:

Feb 11, 2008 0:15:56 GMT -5 semipa said:

I find myself in the odd position of hoping I lose this poll and that M'lord and Shadow win!

Well, it's 9:05 EST, so it looks like Morgullord has already lost. (Unless the first offer went to someone not on this board)

Even someone on the board may have received notice and not yet had a chance to post about it. But, given TT's response, I think this week is probably out altogether.



Also - keep in mind that the poll was specifically for the first offer to a member of this board - not to anyone in general.

[Asterisk]

I say 2/19, the offers going out either 8:00, 8:15 or 8:30 - depending on the length of time to get the morning coffee and crumpet (and whether its Starbucks or Duncans).

[Asterisk]

I say 2/19, the offers going out either 8:00, 8:15 or 8:30 - depending on the length of time to get the morning coffee and crumpet (and whether its Starbucks or Duncans).

[podar]

Shadow and Murgulord,

In the spirit of this competition, I award you a second guess (with all due apologies to the bookies: Witz and Propmaster). I'm qualified to offer you a another guess because I was given a second chance (after inadvertently guessing the Presidents'/Washington's Birthday holiday). Your excuse is as good as mine -- you were just wrong. All prize money will go to another contestant if you cover the same date. Your prize money will be reduced proportionately relative to the number of guesses you make.

How has the recent information about ongoing reference checks affected your estimate? Will you go out another week or two, or three?

[shadow]

Thank you Podar, I'll take another shot. Fri. March 7 at 9:30 EST.

[Propmaster]

Here is an updated summary (all times assumed to be Eastern, or converted where noted otherwise):

2/11 9:00am - Morgullord (1st guess)
2/11 9:30am - Shadow (1st guess)
2/12 9:30am - Sunshine (1st guess)
2/14 9:00am - Globalpanda
2/14 9:30am - Deadwood (superceded)
2/19 8:00-8:30am - Gettingthere
2/19 9:00am - Morgullord (2nd guess)
2/19 9:30am - Deadwood (amended)
2/19 10:00am - Boley
2/20 2:20pm - Podar
--------------------------current time as of this update
2/22 10:00am - Judicature
2/22 1:30pm - Aaa (heart)
2/25 7:59am - Counsel
2/25 9:00am - Aaa (head)
2/25 9:30am - Skibum
2/26 10:00am - Privateatty
2/26 1:20pm - Tootsie
2/27 9:18am - Gromit
2/27 9:30am - Southerner (superceded)
2/27 11:15am - Jerseymom
2/28 9:00am - Notafed
2/29 7:39am - Testtaker
2/29 8:30am - Lee
2/29 9:45am - Lawguardian
2/29 10:00am - Semipa
3/3 10:00am - Witz
3/3 1:30pm - Happy
3/3 1:36pm - Knownuthin
3/4 9:30am - Sunshine (2nd guess)
3/4 10:00am - Lurker
3/5 9:30am - Southerner (amended guess)
3/5 10:09am - Secondchance
3/6 10:00am - Govtattorney
3/7 9:30am - Shadow (2nd guess)
3/7 1:00pm - Nothingventured
3/10 9:00am - Propmaster (I prefer to be pleasantly surprised, rather than disappointed)
3/15 3:00pm - Justfoundthisboard
4/1 9:00 - Wilddog (not sure, due to the date, if this is a joke)

So far, the most popular days are 2/19 and 2/29 with 4 picks each. The most popular "2nd guess" day is 2/19 (indicating some real optimists out there). The most popular time is 9:30 (with 9 picks), the closest two picks are Happy and Knownuthin (6 minutes). followed by Gromit and Southerner (12 minutes). The earliest was this past Monday; the latest is March 15 (over a month later) (or possibly 4/1).

FYI - I used the terminology 1st and 2nd guess for people who guessed again after their first guessed date/time was passed. I used superceded and amended for peopple who made a second guess prior to the passing of their first guess.

According to Pixie, as I understand it, the hot time for expecting offers will begin about 2/21 and ongoing. It would be frowned on for people to move their guesses to that time at this point (although those who have not yet guessed...).

[morgullord]

Being wrong is my specialty!

I now pronounce 2/19/08 at 9 AM as the time of the first call.

[globalpanda]

Shoot- I really really dislike losing. I may have to call some random person up Thursday morning and over them a job.

[gromit]

Feb 12, 2008 22:01:42 GMT -5 @globalpanda said:

Shoot- I really really dislike losing. I may have to call some random person up Thursday morning and over them a job.

Use my cell phone, that's the easiest way to reach me

[deadwood]

Feb 12, 2008 13:20:35 GMT -5 morgullord said:

Being wrong is my specialty!

I now pronounce 2/19/08 at 9 AM as the time of the first call.

Ditto.

Same date, but at 9:30 a.m. EST.

[sunshine]

Looks like I'm also wrong on my first attempt:) My second guess would be the most inconvienient time I could imagine according to my schedule, March 4 at 9:30 EST.

[judicature]

I like the way you think sunshine!

[southerner]

Given the delays with reference checking and noting Monday is a federal holiday, I am going to push my time back by a week. Wednesday, March 5, 9:30am.

We are taking off on a cruise to Cozumel tomorrow and returning Monday and am not bothering with cell phone or e-mail for a few days at least.

[lurker]

We are taking off on a cruise to Cozumel tomorrow and returning Monday and am not bothering with cell phone or e-mail for a few days at least.[/quote]

Wise move on your part. Pleasant sailing.

[conanthebarbarian]

southerner: I hope that you have a safe and enjoyable cruise. Relax! Enjoy! We'll be here when you get back! Best regards! CTB

[testtaker]

Have fun southerner!

[podar]

If Pixie knows, it's looking good for Judicature and Aaa (heart). I'm trying to figure out why Pixie posted this on the ob rather than here.

"For those of you still on this board who are interested in ALJ hiring, the offers should start going out at the end of next week and should be concluded by the end of the following week. Pix. "

[morgullord]

Wrong again!

I may have to remove this sign from my desk: "Once I thought I was wrong, but I was mistaken."

[knownuthin]

I am not changing my prediction of 3/3/08 at 1:36 EST. However, in light of Pixie’s information about 2/22/08, I have checked the math. Guess what? It works.

Using the same formula that I used previously (A=1, B=2, C=3, etc.) you will find that February = 96 and twenty second = 146. Subtract February from twenty second and you get 50, which as I stated before is a very significant number.

We know that there will be 3 classes of 50. Thus adding the two, you get 53. February 22 is the 53 day of the year. Kind of eerie, ain’t it?

As you may recall, my prediction was the day after a significant event, Texas Independence Day. Do you know what 2/22/08 is? It is the day after a total lunar eclipse. I should have known that an alignment of celestial bodies will always trump an anniversary, even one so sacred as 3/2/1836.

So there you have it, again. But don’t take my word for it, because I knownuthin.

[conanthebarbarian]

knownuthin: I am going to go out on a limb and surmise that you are from the great state of Texas. (?) I was on an AT tour at Fort Sam last February and I visited the Alamo which I had not been to since OTS in 1971. I was surprised to learn that apparently no building may be constructed in downtown San Antonio which casts a shadow upon the Alamo. It sounded very impressive considering the events that occurred there. Best regards. CTB